Book Review by Shamindra Ferdinando, Deputy Editor The Island Link

Book Review Dr.Ranga Jayasuriya, Senior Journalist, Daily Mirror May 9th 2026

Winds of Change: Exploring geopolitics amidst growing uncertainty

Abeyagoonasekera rightly points out that this is not uniquely a Chinese predicament, as India’s strained relations with post-Hasina Bangladesh and brewing anti-Indian sentiments in the streets of Dhaka would reveal
One fundamental problem of most geopolitical analyses of this kind is that they tend to read too much, and too prematurely, into geopolitics
Abeyagoonasekera avoids that pitfall. In most measures, he strives to offer a holistic and nuanced picture and strays clear of partisan rhetoric of either side of the geopolitical divide

In a fluid international system of power transition, strained geopolitical alliances in Trump’s second term and fickle domestic politics under Gen Z fervour, Asanga Abeyagoonasekera’s aptly titled book ‘Winds of Change’ is an eye opener.Abeyagoonasekera, a geopolitical analyst and former head of two foreign policy and security think tanks in Sri Lanka, covers a gamut of issues, each with its own complexity and contradictions. They range from the geopolitics of China’s Belt and Road initiative, Indo-China rivalry, America’s Indo-Pacific strategy, evolving alignments, cautious hedging strategies by wary states and domestic politics of individual states in South Asia and beyond. One fundamental problem of most geopolitical analyses of this kind is that they tend to read too much, and too prematurely, into geopolitics, effectively turning nation-states into black boxes and the analyses themselves into echo chambers.Abeyagoonasekera avoids that pitfall. In most measures, he strives to offer a holistic and nuanced picture and strays clear of partisan rhetoric of either side of the geopolitical divide. He discusses systemic forces. i.e. great powers and shifting power configurations, but also domestic systems of regional states, which is important , as neo-classical realists would argue, or any cursory observer in international politics would casually note, domestic choices and preferences have far-reaching influence in the foreign policy choices of states, more so during times of low systemic pressure.

Abeyagoonasekera draws extensively from first-hand experience, regional travels, interviews, anecdotes, and theory and practice of foreign policy and international politics.Some of the insights are interesting – and one reference probably overshadowed the depth and breadth of the rest of the analysis. Abygoonesekara quotes Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the ex-president, as alleging that the CIA had orchestrated his ouster through popular protests -- a preposterous charge, indeed, though conspiracy theories sell.Abeyagoonasekera quotes the Bangladeshi observers, and some Indians, saying the same about the ouster of Sheikh Hasina, through similar mass protests, which turned bloody – unlike in Sri Lanka– when the regime turned its guns on student protestors. In the same pages, certain Russians were also heard referring to coloured revolutions.Abygoonesekara makes no effort to negate or substantiate these claims; he records them.Elsewhere, he is more outspoken. He observes that relations with semi-autocratic regimes entailed a substantial reputational cost for China. He refers to Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s administration, especially, though the sentiment is valid across Asia, Africa and Latin America. He places blame for the vanity projects of BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) on borrowing nations, which often overlook long-term financial viability and environmental concerns of such projects, driven by domestic elitist and political considerations. One of the main drawbacks of unchecked dalliance with autocratic regimes is that such bilateral relations, no matter how deep-rooted, tend to be identified with the regime, effectively making them disproportionately susceptible to the mood shifts associated with domestic political changes. Abeyagoonasekera rightly points out that this is not uniquely a Chinese predicament, as India’s strained relations with post-Hasina Bangladesh and brewing anti-Indian sentiments in the streets of Dhaka would reveal.But, concerning China, this presents a curious paradox. China’s foreign policy approach of non-interference in the internal affairs of other states itself prompts Beijing to work with any government in power, though the same policy returns favour through the adherence to the One China policy and disavowal of any Western censure of China’s human rights. Despite these drawbacks, Abeyagoonasekera defends, rightly so, the colossal importance of China’s BRI as a lender to the global South. He takes a holistic view. He argues that developing nations are borrowing from China, not simply because of what was erroneously called no-strings-attached loans. Instead, he details how Chinese loans had addressed a key lending gap in global infrastructure financing (developing nations face an infrastructure finance deficit of US$ 3.7 trillion to 43 trillion annually.) China provides loans at scale and expediently, and at lending rates, though, may not be in line with the ODA definition of aid, are still more conciliatory than commercial borrowings. Abeyagoonasekera goes on to argue that the BRI is a global civilisational initiative and a counter-hegemonic force. He borrows from the Gramscian concept of cultural hegemony, i.e. power is maintained not through force, but by shaping society’s beliefs, values, and norms and normalising the dominant ideology through institutions like media, education, and religion.Abeygoonesekera draws a parallel: China’s foreign-facing civil society groups and think tanks are increasingly dedicated to promoting a China-centric harmonious culture, while the Chinese state attempts to create a new world order, where its cultural, intellectual and moral leadership take the central role. And BRI brings China’s cultural hegemony into global economic and infrastructure realms, he observes.Spiral of security competitionHe observes US-led balance of power initiatives such as QUAD, AUKUS and overall US Indo-Pacific strategy in response to the rising economic and military power of China. He envisages, rightly so, that China would view such mechanisms as a threat, leading to a spiral of security competition.One of the lacunae in the book is its expansive area of discourse itself, which precludes the author from extensively dwelling on each topic. Abeyagoonasekera himself provides an overdose of information, but not much analysis. A reader might find it difficult to digest so much information, unless he is offered an analytical framework to store it. Instead, Abeyagoonasekera prescribes policy recommendations for states navigating the geopolitical minefields, some of which would be useful for policymakers.One of them might interest the NPP government. He recommends the new administration in Colombo to take lessons from the Gramscian experience. Citing Gramsci’s transformismo (transformation), he observes that the ruling class maintains its dominance not by force, but by consent, by integrating opposing elements of society into its system, creating a semblance of reform while avoiding profound and destabilising systemic changes. That is advice worth listening to.

Winds of Change: Geopolitics at the Crossroads of South And South East Asia, (World Scientific) by Asanga Abeyagoonasekera is now available at Amazon and international bookstores. Link: Daily Mirror

Book Review by Dr. Pramod Jaiswal, NIICE Nepal, March 29th, 2026

A compelling and intellectual analysis of Indo-Pacific geopolitics

In an era defined by shifting geopolitical alignments and intensifying great-power competition, ‘Winds of Change: Geopolitics at the Crossroads of South and Southeast Asia’ by Asanga Abeyagoonasekera offers a compelling and intellectually ambitious examination of the evolving strategic landscape across South and Southeast Asia.

Published by World Scientific, the book stands out as a timely contribution to contemporary geopolitical scholarship, particularly at a moment when the Indo-Pacific has become the epicentre of global power competition.

Abeyagoonasekera’s central argument is that the geopolitical order across Asia is undergoing profound transformation, shaped by the intersecting ambitions of China, India and the United States (US). Positioned at the heart of this competition is Sri Lanka, which the author describes as a pivotal “hinge state” in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Through a careful blending of theoretical frameworks, empirical evidence, and personal reflection, the book explores how domestic politics, economic vulnerabilities and great-power rivalry converge to reshape regional power dynamics.

A distinctive feature of the book is the integration of classical geopolitical thought with contemporary strategic analysis. Drawing on thinkers such as Nicholas J. Spykman and Rudolf Kjellén, alongside the critical political theory of Antonio Gramsci, Abeyagoonasekera situates modern developments within broader intellectual traditions.

An autobiographical element

This theoretical grounding enables the author to move beyond surface-level strategic commentary and examine the ideological and structural forces shaping global politics. The result is a nuanced narrative that connects classical geopolitics with contemporary issues such as infrastructure diplomacy, technological competition and civilisational discourse.

The book begins with a deeply personal introduction in which the author reflects on Sri Lanka’s political and economic collapse. Having warned about the country’s impending crisis years earlier, Abeyagoonasekera recounts his own experiences of dissent, detention and exile.

This autobiographical element gives the work a distinctive voice and situates Sri Lanka’s domestic turmoil within broader patterns of regime instability and global political change. Drawing on data-driven analysis across dozens of countries, the author examines how economic distress, governance failures, and social unrest interact with geopolitical rivalries to produce systemic crises.

The book consists of four interesting chapters. The first chapter focuses on the geopolitics of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Through case studies of Sri Lanka and Cambodia, the author traces historical and cultural connections, from Buddhist exchanges to shared architectural traditions, to illustrate how contemporary diplomacy is often layered upon centuries-old relationships. Strategic infrastructure projects such as Hambantota Port are analysed not merely as economic investments but as geopolitical nodes within China’s expanding maritime network.

Abeyagoonasekera employs Gramscian concepts such as hegemony and transformismo to argue that the BRI represents a transformative force that allows developing nations to pursue modernisation while navigating the pressures of great-power competition.

At the same time, the author does not shy away from critiquing the limitations of China’s approach. Beijing’s emphasis on non-interference and respect for sovereignty, while appealing to many developing countries, can also enable domestic governance failures.

In the Sri Lankan context, the book notes that insufficient transparency and environmental oversight in certain BRI projects have contributed to public backlash, with China sometimes blamed for problems rooted in domestic political mismanagement. This balanced assessment enhances the credibility of the analysis and prevents the book from slipping into either uncritical praise or simplistic criticism.

Cautionary tale

The second chapter broadens the discussion to examine regional diplomacy between China and India. Sri Lanka emerges as a strategic battleground where competing economic, security and diplomatic initiatives intersect. The chapter also explores broader regional trends, including governance challenges in Pakistan and Bangladesh and the concept of “polycrisis,” in which economic, political and social disruptions occur simultaneously. Abeyagoonasekera says that the experiences of Sri Lanka offer cautionary lessons for other South Asian states struggling with debt distress, corruption and democratic erosion.

Chapter three shifts the focus to global power rivalries. Here, the author analyses the intensifying competition between China and the US, particularly in areas such as technology, trade and global governance.

Sanctions, export controls, and restrictions targeting Chinese firms have accelerated Beijing’s efforts toward economic self-reliance and diversification.

At the same time, China has expanded its influence in the Global South through initiatives such as the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Civilisation Initiative (GCI), and the Global Security Initiative (GSI). These frameworks are presented as alternatives to Western-dominated international structures and as tools for expanding China’s diplomatic and economic reach.

The chapter also reflects on the evolving role of the US in a multi-polar world. Domestic political divisions, rising inequality, and shifting foreign policy priorities have, according to the author, weakened Washington’s global authority.

India’s own geopolitical balancing act, caught between strategic cooperation with the US and competition with China, illustrates the complexity of regional diplomacy in the Indo-Pacific.

The final chapter turns inward, examining Sri Lanka’s domestic political challenges in the aftermath of its economic crisis. Particular attention is given to the election of a Marxist-leaning leadership and the broader societal demand for governance reform.

Standing at a crossroads

The book discusses initiatives aimed at combatting corruption and rebuilding public trust, while also highlighting the geopolitical implications of Sri Lanka’s security cooperation with India and its economic engagement with China. Ultimately, the author portrays Sri Lanka as standing at a crossroads: externally navigating great-power rivalry while internally attempting to rebuild institutions and democratic accountability.

What makes Winds of Change particularly valuable is its multidimensional perspective. The book combines geopolitical theory, regional diplomacy, domestic politics, and personal narrative into a coherent analytical framework. Abeyagoonasekera’s extensive regional travel, interviews and firsthand observations enrich the discussion, providing insights that go beyond purely academic analysis.

Nevertheless, the book is also deliberately provocative. Its critiques of Western strategic thinking, its reassessment of China’s global role, and its candid reflections on regional governance may spark debate among scholars and policymakers. Yet this willingness to challenge dominant narratives is precisely what gives the work its intellectual vitality.

Winds of Change: Geopolitics at the Crossroads of South and Southeast Asia is an important contribution to the study of Indo-Pacific geopolitics. By situating Sri Lanka within the broader contest among China, India and the US, the book highlights how smaller states navigate great-power competition while grappling with their own domestic vulnerabilities. For policymakers, researchers and students seeking to understand the evolving balance of power in Asia, Abeyagoonasekera’s work provides both analytical depth and timely insight.

The writer is a Research Director at the Nepal Institute for International Cooperation and Engagement. Link Sunday Observer

Book Review by Prof.Rajiva Wijesighe, The Island, Visit link

Book Review by Uditha Devapriya, The Morning, March 15, 2026

Beyond the pleasant fiction

Remarks made at the launch of Asanga Abeyagoonasekera’s ‘Winds of Change: Geopolitics at the Crossroads of South and Southeast Asia’ (World Scientific Publishing, 2026) at the Alliance Francaise Colombo on 10 March:

Distinguished members of the audience, it has been almost two weeks since the war in Iran began. Since then, the situation has spiralled out of control, and as yet there is no end in sight.

Slowly but surely, the shock effects of this war are being felt across South Asia. In India, for instance, hotel and restaurant owners in certain states are urging the Government to address what they feel will be chronic shortages of gas. In Sri Lanka, yesterday, the price of petrol and diesel shot up by more than Rs. 15 a litre. In Bangladesh, universities have been asked to scale down operations to conserve fuel and electricity.

The future of world order

All this raises an important question, which Asanga Abeyagoonasekera addresses in this book. Though written before the outbreak of hostilities in West Asia, that question is relevant now. What is the future of world order going to be, and how are the world’s de facto powers, including India and China, going to adjust?

This is a very important question. For much of the last quarter-century, how India and China see each other has shaped the contours of geopolitics, both in this region and outside. That relationship has been mediated by several factors, not least of which is the US presence in the Indian Ocean and the Indo-Pacific.

Going by current trends, it is this relationship which will determine the course of world order and regional stability for the foreseeable future. The question that presents itself is, simply, whether both countries are willing to adjust to and accommodate one another as everything around them transforms.

When talking about these two countries Abeyagoonasekera invoked the idea of civilisational states. This is an important point. If you reconcile that idea with the notion that the future belongs to Asia, and that power is pivoting to Asia – and, of course, that other continents, including Europe, are looking towards Asia – then it becomes clear that the future of the world cannot be written without a future for the relationship between India and China. The question then is, what is the future of this relationship going to be?

India-China relationship

Abeyagoonasekera was very clear that this relationship is fraught with internal tensions and contradictions. He engaged in a lengthy analysis about each country, their strengths and weaknesses, and drew conclusions which may intrigue some and unnerve others.

He questioned the received wisdom about these countries, which may well go against the grain of conventional thinking. You may agree with them, or you may not. But his point, that no single country, not even a regional power, can sustain the weight of an entire region on its own, in isolation, is convincing. More than anything, it makes sense.

Of course, there are many differences which set India apart from China, and which define their relationship. These differences have to do with cultural and political structures, and social, economic, and historical conditions. At a certain level, they translate into a difference in diplomatic approach.

Appraising how India and China project power at home and abroad, Abeyagoonasekera argued that a strategy of building influence will prevail over one of seizing influence. For those who read between the lines, the implications of this argument and observation cannot be clear enough.

The elephant in the room

More importantly, Abeyagoonasekera questioned whether it makes sense to build up power abroad by aligning with global powers whose foreign relations have suffered a near-total rupture because of certain domestic convulsions.

Statements made by State officials, ambassadors, and diplomats at functions abroad indicate that these powers want to do things their own way. They want to remake the world in their image, and they want allies to fall in line with their approach, with or without tangible benefits.

This is at odds with how superpowers and regional powers framed the so-called rules-based order for over 80 years. Suddenly, almost overnight, we have been told that all what we had learnt in international relations courses and international law classes was a myth, that there is no rules-based order, only the mirage of one.

In this scheme, countries which have the luxury of changing the piper’s tune do everything they can to stay at the top, whereas other states have to fall in line with the new approach with pivotal, and often negative, consequences to their society and their economy. The recent fallout in West Asia is one example of perhaps many to come.

The elephant in the room is not so much whether we should fall in line with that approach, but whether there are alternatives to such approaches which we can tap into in our own backyard. Abeyagoonasekera observed that the only sustainable solution was to look at ways of achieving a synergy closer to home. When these solutions are clear and present in the neighbourhood, the problem becomes easier to resolve.

Sri Lanka and the road ahead

Meanwhile, the great geopolitical confrontations of our time have compelled countries like Sri Lanka to think of a road ahead.

The recent attack on and sinking of an Iranian vessel indicates that the best way forward for countries like ours is to adhere to the norms of international law, and international conventions, carrying out our legal and humanitarian obligations without dithering in the dark.

There is a perception that we cannot afford to take sides, and to a large extent this is true. But we should also have the courage of our convictions, as the Sri Lankan Government demonstrated, despite tangible risks, to abide by principles and norms which we are now told no longer matter.

Ultimately, that has a great deal to do with how we perceive ourselves and whether we let others define who we are. During an informal conversation with a former Indian Foreign Secretary in Hyderabad last year, I raised the question of what we should do to chart our way forward in terms of our relations with the rest of the world.

His response rang true. I quote: “The important thing is for the country concerned to have a body of scholars who can analyse the relationship from the domestic angle. This leads to making more effective policy, rather than the policy maker making policy after reading third-party writings.”

Foreign policy

All too often, in countries like Sri Lanka, foreign policy has largely been refracted through the prism of third-party writings. We have seen our place in the world through the lenses of other actors, institutions, and countries. We have been afraid to be the authors of our own foreign policy, because we feel we are not good enough.

What Asanga Abeyagoonasekera tries to do in his book is to make us think about an order in which solutions are based on domestic and regional priorities and not on the priorities of others. These priorities can be many things at the same time: democratic governance, economic prosperity, foreign trade, and domestic production. Some may argue that this is an insular policy. It does not have to be.

To quote Abeyagoonasekera: “The world order is shifting; the certainties of the past are crumbling.”

Against the backdrop of an uncertain future, the old order can no longer be relied upon. To invoke Mark Carney, today marks the end of a pleasant fiction.

This is the morning after.

Book Comments and Review by Dr. Jehan Perera, Ceylon Today March 15, 2026

SL Must Navigate Geopolitical Rivalries While Upholding International Law

Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean places the country at the centre of intensifying geopolitical rivalries, making adherence to international law and strong governance essential for safeguarding national interests, according to political analyst Jehan Perera.

Speaking at the launch of the book ‘Winds of Change: Sri Lanka’s Political Shift and Geopolitical Challenges’ by Asanga Abeyagoonasekera, Perera said the world is undergoing a significant transition in which long-standing assumptions about global order and international law are increasingly being challenged.

“The international system many of us grew up with is changing,” he observed, noting that the rules-based international order is under strain as powerful countries test established norms and new rivalries emerge.

For Sri Lanka, these global shifts are not distant developments but realities that directly affect its security, economy and political choices. Situated along key Indian Ocean sea lanes and at the crossroads of global trade, the country inevitably feels the impact of tensions among major powers.

Perera said the book’s central argument—that geography shapes circumstances but governance determines whether geography becomes an opportunity or a liability—captures Sri Lanka’s present challenge.

He pointed out that President Anura Kumara Dissanayake has articulated a foreign policy approach based on engaging with all countries without being drawn into geopolitical balancing.

According to Perera, Sri Lanka must maintain relationships with major powers such as the United States, India, China and Japan while remaining guided by a clear commitment to democratic values and international law.

Iranian naval incident

Referring to recent events involving the Iranian naval vessel IRIS Dena, Perera said Sri Lanka’s response to a distress call from the ship demonstrated the country’s commitment to humanitarian principles.

He noted that Sri Lanka’s Navy acted in accordance with obligations under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which requires countries to assist those in distress at sea regardless of nationality or political considerations.

“What has been remarkable about this incident is the reaction within Sri Lanka,” he said, adding that there had been an unusual level of public consensus across political and social divisions that the country acted correctly by assisting those in danger.

At the same time, Perera cautioned that the incident highlights the complexities of the current international environment, where conflicts involving powerful nations often create pressure on smaller States to take sides.

“For smaller countries like Sri Lanka, this is not an easy situation,” he said, stressing that smaller States rarely have the luxury of ignoring great power rivalries and must instead learn to navigate them carefully.

Perera noted that Sri Lanka sits at a strategic intersection in the Indian Ocean where the interests of major powers overlap, making the region an increasingly important arena for geopolitical competition. For small States in such an environment, he said, international law is not an abstract principle but often the only protection available to safeguard sovereignty and national interests.

Sri Lanka’s own diplomatic history reflects this perspective. In 1971, the country proposed that the Indian Ocean be declared an Indian Ocean Zone of Peace at the United Nations, with the aim of preventing the region from becoming a theatre for great power rivalry.

Today, he noted, that vision appears increasingly relevant as strategic competition intensifies across the Indian Ocean.

Importance of relations with India

Perera also highlighted the importance of maintaining strong ties with India, describing the relationship as a permanent element of Sri Lanka’s strategic environment due to geographical proximity.

“India’s proximity is a permanent fact of Sri Lanka’s strategic environment,” he said, emphasising that maintaining trust and cooperation with New Delhi is crucial for the island’s stability and prosperity.

While emphasising the importance of defending international law globally, Perera said Sri Lanka’s credibility in doing so depends largely on its conduct domestically.

He recalled that Sri Lanka’s nearly three-decade civil conflict left unresolved issues relating to missing persons, accountability and reconciliation that continue to affect communities across the country.

Families are still searching for answers about loved ones who disappeared during the war, while efforts to rebuild trust between divided communities remain ongoing.

“A nation’s moral authority abroad is strengthened by the justice it practises at home,” Perera said, arguing that Sri Lanka must apply the same principles of humanitarianism and rule of law domestically if it wishes to advocate for them internationally.

He further said that Sri Lanka’s handling of the Iranian sailors demonstrated that the country is capable of acting with humanity and principle even in complex geopolitical circumstances.

However, he stressed that the deeper challenge lies in ensuring that these values guide the country consistently—not only in moments of international crisis but also in the long-term process of building a just and reconciled society.

Book Review by Dr. ZHOU Zhanggui, Ceylon Today, February 9th, 2026

Geopolitics at the Crossroads of South and Southeast Asia

Winds of Change: Geopolitics at the Crossroads of South and Southeast Asia stands as a masterfully constructed and urgently relevant examination of the tectonic forces reshaping the Indo-Pacific. Asanga Abeyagoonasekera, with the dual authority of an indigenous strategist and a global geopolitical analyst, does not merely document events but architecturally deconstructs the interplay between grand strategy, regional diplomacy, and domestic fragility. The book’s profound strength lies in its meticulously layered structure—a deliberate intellectual journey from the macro to the micro, and from theory to visceral reality—which showcases the author’s exceptional command of narrative pacing and strategic synthesis.

The journey commences with “Geopolitics of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI),” where Abeyagoonasekera immediately elevates the discussion beyond infrastructure ledger-keeping. By invoking Antonio Gramsci’s concepts of “hegemony” and “transformismo,” he reframes the BRI not as a mere economic project but as a sophisticated form of “passive revolution.” This theoretical lens is brilliantly applied to Sri Lanka and Cambodia, illustrating how China’s initiatives seek to reshape the ideological and political consensus within recipient States. The analysis seamlessly transitions from abstract theory to concrete security dilemmas, such as the debates over Hambantota Port and Chinese research vessels in the Indian Ocean. This first section establishes the book’s core paradigm: global initiatives are internalised and contested within local political landscapes, setting the stage for the regional scramble that follows.

Building on this foundation, Chapter 2, “Regional Diplomacy of India and China,” functions as the strategic pivot of the book. Here, Abeyagoonasekera demonstrates his skill in comparative strategic analysis. The conceptual device of the “Valeriepieris Circle” brilliantly visualises the dense, contested demographic crucible of South Asia where the India-China rivalry plays out. His critique is dual-edged: he dissects India’s “Chanakyan” ambitions and its internal democratic erosion with the same rigour applied to China’s outreach in the Maldives and Bangladesh. The chapter’s genius is in its comparative case-study approach, treating Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam not as isolated entries but as interconnected nodes in a single strategic system. This allows him to argue convincingly that the region faces not isolated crises but a synergistic “polycrisis,” where economic debt, political instability, and great-power competition fuel one another.

Having established the global framework (BRI) and the regional dynamic (India-China rivalry), Abeyagoonasekera then zooms out to the “Geopolitical Power Rivalries” in Chapter 3. This section reveals his capacity for grand strategic narrative. By linking events from Myanmar and the Red Sea to the philosophical legacies of Rudolf Kjellén and Nicholas Spykman, he contextualises South Asia’s turmoil within the demise of American unipolarity and the chaotic birth of a multipolar world. The analysis of sanctions as an “economic weapon” and the discussion of concepts like “buck-passing” provide a powerful toolkit for understanding the broader canvas upon which the Sri Lankan drama is painted. This movement from the specific to the universal and back again is a hallmark of sophisticated geopolitical writing, ensuring the reader never mistakes the local case for an isolated incident.

The entire analytical edifice culminates with penetrating force in Chapter 4, “Sri Lanka’s Domestic Political Challenges.” This is where Abeyagoonasekera’s insider perspective and narrative power shine brightest. The section reads as a poignant, deeply informed autopsy of his homeland’s collapse. He masterfully traces how the external pressures and strategic choices analysed in the preceding chapters—BRI debt, Indian and Chinese influence, great-power indifference—exacerbated and were exploited by domestic failures: the “architecture of control,” digital surveillance, judicial ambiguities, and resurgent nationalism.

The chapters on India’s strategic embrace and the new defence agreements are particularly critical, demonstrating how external intervention morphs into domestic policy. This final section fulfils the promise of the book’s structure, proving that the “winds of change” are not abstract forces but storms felt in the lives of citizens, mediated by fraught political choices made under immense duress.

Abeyagoonasekera’s narrative technique is as deliberate as his structure. He employs “conceptual anchoring”—persistently linking specific events (like a visit by a research vessel) to broader theories (Gramscian hegemony) and strategic frameworks (the Rimland theory). This creates a coherent analytical thread throughout diverse topics. Furthermore, his use of vivid, diagnostic metaphors—Sri Lanka as a “battleground for influence,” Indian Ocean diplomacy as a “strategic chessboard,” Vietnam’s policy as “bamboo diplomacy”—translates complex dynamics into immediately graspable and memorable images. The prose is accessible without sacrificing academic rigour, making the book equally valuable in the seminar room and the situation room.

Winds of Change is an indispensable work for anyone seeking to understand the new grammar of power in the 21st century. It is essential reading not only for scholars of South Asia or the BRI but for diplomats, security practitioners, and journalists navigating an era of layered competition. Abeyagoonasekera has delivered more than a case study; he has provided a masterclass in integrated strategic analysis, showing with unparalleled clarity how the global, regional, and domestic are inextricably fused in the fate of nations. This book is a compelling, authoritative, and ultimately humane guide to the storms we face and the precarious agency of those who must sail through them.

Dr. ZHOU Zhanggui is the Director of OSS International Collaboration Mechanism (Center), Research Fellow of Overseas Safety and Security Programs, NTS-PD, Zhejiang University. He is also an Observer and CSO member of the International Code of Conduct Association (ICoCA). Link Ceylon Today

Book Review by Abdur Rahim, South Asia Perspectives June 15th 2024

“In Teardrop Diplomacy, Asanga Abeyagoonasekera does a masterful job in outlining China’s engagement with Sri Lanka and the resultant impact on regional relations, “great power competition,” and the security and economic stability of Sri Lanka itself. This work offers a cogent and balanced view from the Sri Lankan perspective, rightly reminding us of how decisions made can have unintended consequences for years to come. For students and experts on South Asian security and economic relations, this is a valuable and timely source.”

“In Teardrop Diplomacy: China’s Sri Lanka Foray, Asanga Abeyagoonasekera, one of the most perceptive amongst Sri Lanka’s international relations experts, traces the geopolitical complexities that this island currently faces. Applying this geopolitical perspective, he so incisively explicates Sri Lanka’s ongoing politico-economic crisis. Indeed, the book carries an urgent message about how powerful nations can use their economic leverages to achieve their geopolitical objectives, especially so in the lingering post-pandemic precipice. Locating Chinese economic diplomacy and Belt and Road Initiatives outreach into the Indian Ocean rim in the context of US-China great power rivalry in the Indo-Pacific, it illuminates interesting evolving trajectories of its impact on Sri Lankan in specific and for South Asia in general with clear implication for China’s peer competitor, India.”

— Dr. Swaran Singh, professor of diplomacy & disarmament, Jawaharlal Nehru University (New Delhi), currently visiting professor, University of British Columbia (Vancouver)

“Asanga Abeyagoonasekera is a serious, objective and unconventional analyst of Sri Lanka’s strategic affairs. He has knitted an insightful narrative of Sri Lanka’s

dilemma in coping with the pressures of regional and great powers’ competition in the Indo-Pacific region. He makes a valid point that without a credible democracy and stable economy, led by honest and competent leadership, the Island nation will not be able to remain afloat in the turbulent waters of the Indian Ocean”

—Prof.S. D. MUNI Professor Emeritus, School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India, Former Ambassador and Special Envoy, Govt. Of India.

—Dr. Roger Kangas, Dean, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, US Department of Defence (DOD) Washington, DC

Since the beginning of 2021 more than a million Sri Lankans have left its shores in the largest migration in the country’s history. The outflow continues to gain momentum as the hopes wane of a rapid change in the country’s economic and political situation. The economy has contracted by 9 percent and inflation exceeds 80 percent. The government has cracked down on dissent to ensure it does not grow again as it did in April 2022 when huge crowds of protestors drove out the sitting president into temporary self-exile.

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera had to leave Sri Lanka too though for political rather than economic reasons. His public criticism of the government leadership in the aftermath of the Easter Sunday bomb attacks made him a target for retribution. I am pleased that Asanga has used his time out of Sri Lanka well. He has used the perspective and time he has to focus on foreign policy issues, an area in which there is a noticeable dearth of public and academic discourse. Asanga’s scholarship and research goes a long way to fill the void.

The Indian Ocean in which Sri Lanka is located in an important position is one of the most contested regions in the world today. China, the US and India, and also Japan and Australia among others, are vying for influence over Sri Lanka. There is increased competition between the global big powers in the India Ocean. The challenge to Sri Lanka is how to maximize the benefit to itself from this situation, and being cognizant of the interests of the big powers, without being overwhelmed by pressures that may be brought to bear upon it.

Asanga tackles these issues which are complex and require a nuanced approach and good judgment to secure Sri Lanka’s best interests. The countries involved in the competition for influence in the region are the most powerful in the world which all have significant stakes in promoting their interests at the expense of Sri Lanka’s national interest. I congratulate Asanga on the research he has done and the learning he manifests in this book, which fills a lacuna.

Book Review by Shagun Thapliyal, Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA). Published by South Asia Journal

Book Review: Teardrop Diplomacy: China’s Sri Lanka Foray

In 2022, our screens were filled with news about Sri Lanka facing a crisis. The country was running out of its foreign currency reserves and the price of basic necessities was off the charts. All examinations were cancelled due to a shortage of paper and medical operations were done under candles or electric torches. One of our neighbours was under economic turmoil and when the average Sri Lankan needed some reassurance from their leaders, they went radio silent. Asanga Abeyagoonasekera, an eminent expert on Sri Lanka, gives his detailed critical insights on how his home country reached to a point of vulnerability where any major power could whatever they wanted to.

The Book sets up the stage for this economic crisis and how the country of Sri Lanka, which was once the beacon of economic prosperity and growth in South Asia, fell into a deep hole of financial ruin and political corruption that undid all the positives in the post-Civil War era.

Structure of the Book

The Author has used a unique structure in this book which might seem overwhelming at first but over the course of reading, it will help in connecting the timeline of the events set between the years of 2019 to 2022. The book is divided into five major headings, with each heading having an average of eight chapters with the chapters indicated by a specific date. The significance of the date in each chapter helps us to track the major events that were happening not only in Sri Lanka but in the entirety of the Indo-Pacific. It also covers a great detail of the political dynamics within Sri Lanka.

The book is supported by various graphical representations through charts, maps etc which are supplementary to the arguments proposed by the author as well as the inputs by fellow scholars such as C Raja Mohan, Ambassador Shivshankar Menon, Srikanth Kondapalli, Harsh V Pant and many more.

Some of these inputs can be perceived as a foreshadowing of the events that were about to transpire in the upcoming years.

What did I like about this book?

The book was quite detailed, covering several major incidents such as the Chinese Spy Ship on Sri Lankan Ports, the 2019 Sri Lankan Elections which brought the Rajapaksas back in power, the controversial policies that started to derail the country’s economy and so on. The author did not spare any space when it came to the impact of all the events on that one singular event.

One of the areas that I found interesting was the section on Geopolitics and the meticulous coverage of the foreign policy dynamics. The chapter opened with an introduction to the concept of Indo-Pacific which was given by Karl Haushofer in 1920. Haushofer linked it in the context of the global dynamics in the Second World War and how it can be used by Great Britain (UK) and the US to combat the Axis Powers. The chapter also delved into the current dynamics of the region with QUAD (India, Japan, US and Australia) and the European Union (EU) and their perception of China as a potential threat or in the words of the EU, a “Systemic Rival”.

The chapter also dealt with Chinese Diplomacy via the BRI and how did it affect foreign policy in the Global South by covering the high-profile visits of Chinese Delegations under the leadership of Yang Jiechi and Wang Yi. Yang Jiechi visited Sri Lanka to meet the Rajapaksas in a high-profile meeting in the post-pandemic era. The visit was a sign of reassurance over the continuity of BRI amid concerns of withdrawals at that time within the region, especially in Bangladesh. Around that time, the author also delved into the foreign policy under Joe Biden’s Presidency where he covered the deepening Indo-US ties in the shadows of the Sri Lanka-China ties. It also focused on the Huawei 5G controversy whose rollout was not approved by the preceding government led by Mathripala Srisena, who prioritised India as a close partner over China. The presiding government halted all Chinese projects for investigation, especially after the fact that the Hambantota port was leased to China.

Other parts of the chapter that caught my eye were the critical evaluation of the other major powers like Russia and the EU in the Indo-Pacific as well as the impact of the rise of the Taliban and their takeover in Afghanistan. The takeover had a significant impact within Sri Lanka especially in the context of the status of Muslim citizens. This religious connection was also seen in the Sri Lankan response to the Human Rights Violations in Xinjiang.

International Scholars also covered the security dynamics in detail about AUKUS and QUAD. Their arguments were supplemented by statements by leaders from both India and Sri Lanka, the author quoted that the informal structure of the QUAD focused on protecting democratic nations from the Chinese debt trap as a counterweight with India at its helm. The chapter also covered the similarities in the Chinese strategy towards Sri Lanka and Solomon Islands, both of them located at pivotal points and their leaders giving political favours to Chinese investors in high-loss infrastructural projects.

The book also covered the various facets of Sri Lanka’s Domestic policies under the Rajapaksas and how they dealt with the domestic responses when it came to the resistance and critique towards Chinese companies and China-based projects.

The other section critically analysed the situation within Sri Lanka. It started with the August 2020 Parliamentary election and concluded with the rise of the economic crisis in 2022. The author provided a comparative analysis between the presidencies of Mahinda and Gotabaya Rajapaksa on the approaches they took towards domestic and foreign policies. I think that this overview was very critical in understanding the similarities and differences between the leadership of the two brothers and what objectives they had in mind for the prosperity of the country after the end of the Civil War. Since the Author is a native of the country, the analysis can be felt more authentic than contemporary publications on Sri Lankan Foreign Policy which tend to have an India or China-heavy lens. It also covered some of the policies of the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government between 2015-19, which had a more hawkish attitude towards China and focused on repairing its relationship with India which was damaged by the end of Mahinda Rajpaksa’s presidency.

The author called Gotabaya Rajapaksa an Autocratic leader under whose leadership there was a large number of human rights violations. It was a concern from the end of the European Union which raised a resolution on the withdrawal of the “Generalised Scheme of Preferences+” (GSP). The government also rejected the UNHRC resolution which was raised in March 2022, focusing on the reconciliation process with the civil war leaders and the repeal of the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA). The GSP+ was a crucial policy which helped Sri Lankan exports and enabled duty-free access for 7200 products in the EU.

The author covered the abrupt steps and policies of the former government such as the setup of several family members in positions of power, shortages of essential goods, the sudden shift towards organic agriculture which impacted crop cultivation and so on. It started to form cracks in not only one of the oldest democracies in the region but also a prosperous economy which surpassed India at one point in time.

As per the author, Sri Lanka was in its “Arab Spring” moments and wanted to overthrow the autocratic leaders and their corrupt practices. The common man was marred with rising prices, and delays in the supply of essential goods. Lawyers appeared as the voice of the protesters in courts while the people in power escaped to avoid accountability. In his opinion, the Rajapaksa government was incapable of functioning after changing the cabinets twice a month which created frustration on the end of the people. This was highlighted at the moment when the Sri Lankans entered the Presidential Residence and started using its facilities.

In the final pages of the book, there were two detailed family trees which focused on the Rajapaksa family and the number of members who were present in positions of power.

Conclusion

The book was an eye-opening delight which covered the legacies of a corrupt leadership and how their short-sightedness can impact a country’s economic and foreign policy. The author has critically evaluated the leadership of the Sri Lankan governments under the Rajapaksas and connected it to the global scenarios at that time. The book did well in avoiding leaning too much into India or China, the latter being in the subtitle, it also covered about the other international players like the European Union, US and Japan.

However, there were some gaps when it came to the coverage of the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe government from 2015-19 as the main focus of the book was only on one family. The author could have focused on covering this government to set the tone for the comeback of the Rajapaksas and the repeal of the older policies. The book could have added a more economic dimension as I felt the book focused more on the security perspective in context of BRI.

In my opinion, this book is one of the better publications which gives the perspective of Sri Lanka in the current context and the political dynamics of the island nation.

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Analysis, Taylor and Francis Research Journal, 28 Feb 2022 https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2021.2020449

Book Review by Arnold Zeitlin, 8 November 2021 Published by South Asia Journal

- See more at: http://southasiajournal.net/conundrum-of-an-island-sri-lankas-geopolitical-challenges-by-asanga-abeyagoonasekera/

SAGE Publication - Book review: Asanga Abeyagoonasekera, Sri Lanka at Crossroads: Geopolitical Challenges and National Interests. Article Information
Volume: 75 issue: 3, page(s): 413-416
Article first published online: September 30, 2019; Issue published: September 1, 2019 , by Roshni Kapur Institute of South Asian Studies, National University, Singapore. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0974928419860940

Strategic Analysis Volume 43, 2019 - Issue 5 - Routledge

https://doi.org/10.1080/09700161.2019.1663648

Published by South Asia Journal ,9th Oct 2019

http://southasiajournal.net/book-review-sri-lanka-at-the-crossroads-geopolitical-challenges-and-national-interests-by-asanga-abeyagoonasekera/